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Watford 0–0 Hull

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull win39%2.49
Watford win33%2.90
Draw28%3.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Watford +0.2555%1.78
Hull +0.2545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Wesley Hoedt · Watford
42'🟨Jacob Greaves · Hull
50'🟨Ryan Porteous · Watford
52'🟨Ryan Andrews · Watford
62'🟨Matty Jacob · Hull
70'🟨Tyler Morton · Hull
72'🟨Francisco Sierralta · Watford
90'🟨Adama Traoré · Hull

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots13
2On target6
1Corners5
19Fouls13
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWatfordHull
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.570.70
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVicarage Road
coach days50.00536.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.283.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.480.45
elo1588.841631.21
elo momentum (last 5)9.50-1.39
eye test v1-0.10-0.06
eye trend v1-0.210.49
first sub minute (last 10)51.6058.20
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.710.69
league points52.0065.00
league rank16.007.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2086.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8057.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.20
season ppg1.211.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.60
skill v1-0.111.38
solidity v10.30-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
squad age25.7325.76
state index-0.190.27
sterile dominance v1-0.091.18
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
travel km—233.10
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.061.47
xg for avg (last 5)0.781.12