← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 57% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 |
| Rotherham win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0.75 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Rotherham +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Cameron Humphreys · Rotherham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Keshi Anderson · Birmingham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tom Eaves · Rotherham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lee Peltier · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 19.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1415.48 | 1513.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.62 | 15.94 |
| eye test v1 | -1.45 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 23.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -1.48 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.94 | 27.18 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.99 |