← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 74% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.16 |
| Cardiff win | 10% | 10.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff +1.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Southampton +1.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Joe Aribo · Southampton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 68' | ⚽ | Famara Diédhiou · Cardiff |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Southampton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cian Ashford · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 324.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1542.96 | 1742.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.80 | 11.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| league points | 59.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 66.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 2.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 141.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.64 |