← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 68% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.42 |
| Watford win | 13% | 7.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Watford −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.46 |
| Under | 34% | 2.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Will Smallbone · Southampton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Watford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ryan Fraser · Southampton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ismael Koné · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 287.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1728.94 | 1593.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.80 | 24.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| league points | 78.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.87 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.58 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 107.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 0.90 |