← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Cardiff win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Millwall −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.49 |
| Over | 35% | 2.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Michael Obafemi · Millwall |
| 24' | ⚽ | Yakou Méïté · Cardiff |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ryan Longman · Millwall |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 72.00 | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1551.04 | 1555.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.10 | -17.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 47.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 0.73 |