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Bristol City 1–1 Huddersfield

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Welch

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bristol City win42%2.33
Draw30%3.27
Huddersfield win29%3.35

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −0.2551%1.91
Bristol City −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.71
Over43%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Brodie Spencer · Huddersfield
12'🟨Alex Matos · Huddersfield
42'🟨Michał Helik · Huddersfield
63'🟨Haydon Roberts · Bristol City
71'🟨Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield
81'⚽Josh Koroma · Huddersfield
90'🟨Lee Nicholls · Huddersfield
90'🟨Jack Rudoni · Huddersfield
90'⚽ (pen)Nahki Wells · Bristol City

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots13
3On target4
12Corners4
7Fouls18
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBristol CityHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.25
box share (last 5)0.670.70
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAshton Gate Stadium
coach days164.0072.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.607.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.513.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1615.631534.14
elo momentum (last 5)33.22-14.08
eye test v10.36-0.22
eye trend v10.12-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)56.1052.60
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.520.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.810.60
league points57.0043.00
league rank12.0023.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8067.80
possession avg (last 5)44.4045.00
rest days2.803.80
scorer concentration0.120.23
season ppg1.361.02
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.203.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6014.00
skill v1-0.39-1.17
solidity v10.59-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age27.7625.36
state index0.68-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.61-1.10
threat rate (last 10)0.280.32
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.141.27
xg for avg (last 5)1.411.14