← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 10, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 62% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 |
| Watford win | 16% | 5.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Watford −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kieffer Moore · Ipswich |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 861.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1769.09 | 1587.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.20 | 9.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 87.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 26.31 |
| state index | 0.95 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 115.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.04 |