← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 10, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 |
| Cardiff win | 22% | 4.37 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cardiff −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 54' | 🟨 | Krystian Bielik · Birmingham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Josh Bowler · Cardiff |
| 65' | ⚽ | Josh Bowler · Cardiff |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 40.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1499.83 | 1545.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.06 | -13.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.02 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 144.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.02 |