← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Apr 9, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 57% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.79 |
| Millwall win | 18% | 5.53 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Millwall +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.89 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 21' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Leicester |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ryan Longman · Millwall |
| 83' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matija Šarkić · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 68.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1535.87 | 1794.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.72 | -0.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 44.00 | 88.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 26.86 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |