← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Welch
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 54% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
| Swansea win | 22% | 4.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough |
| 78' | 🟨 | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 79' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 84' | 🟨 | Daniel Barlaser · Middlesbrough |
| 86' | 🟨 | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 553.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1649.41 | 1592.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.76 | -9.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 58.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 1.33 |
| solidity v1 | 1.20 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 28.14 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 373.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.43 |