← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 38% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.08 | fair |
| Millwall win | 31% | 34% | 3.21 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Huddersfield −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Ben Jackson · Huddersfield |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 59' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 61' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Huddersfield |
| 61' | 🟨 | Billy Mitchell · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lee Nicholls · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Edwards · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rhys Healey · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 65.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1537.02 | 1544.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.35 | -4.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 40.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.92 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.05 |