← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Southampton win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Ipswich −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.52 |
| Under | 37% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 13' | ⚽ | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 14' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 16' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 23' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
| 85' | 🟥 | James Bree · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jeremy Sarmiento · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 852.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1773.68 | 1731.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.03 | -22.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| league points | 84.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 68.00 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 3.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 2.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 26.12 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 217.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 2.16 |