← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Plymouth win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Bristol City +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 54' | 🟨 | Alfie Devine · Plymouth |
| 57' | ⚽ | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lewis Gibson · Plymouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alfie Devine · Plymouth |
| 78' | 🟥 | Alfie Devine · Plymouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 0.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1564.76 | 1588.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.28 | -1.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 3.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.76 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.78 |