← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 64% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 |
| Watford win | 15% | 6.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +1 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Watford +1 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.61 |
| Under | 41% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 37' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 44' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Dennis · Watford |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mateo Joseph · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 28.00 | 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1579.34 | 1814.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.75 | 24.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.00 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.89 |
| league points | 48.00 | 82.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 13.21 | 12.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.96 | 24.42 |
| state index | -0.14 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 249.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.44 |