← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 62% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.88 |
| Middlesbrough win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Middlesbrough −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.40 |
| Under | 30% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 50' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough |
| 62' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Middlesbrough |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lewis O'Brien · Middlesbrough |
| 83' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 272.00 | 545.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.09 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1735.75 | 1635.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.80 | 16.13 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| league points | 73.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.31 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.38 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 25.75 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.35 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 408.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.05 |