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Millwall 1–1 West Brom

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win39%2.51
Draw32%3.10
Millwall win29%3.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Millwall +0.2554%1.82
West Brom +0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.50
Over37%2.71

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Joe Bryan · Millwall
17'🟨Kyle Bartley · West Brom
21'⚽Duncan Watmore · Millwall
60'🟨Cédric Kipré · West Brom
67'⚽ (pen)John Swift · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots6
2On target2
6Corners4
9Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMillwallWest Brom
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.680.58
cards avg (last 5)2.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Den
coach days57.00545.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.28
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.80-4.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.408.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.571.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.350.40
elo1553.861709.60
elo momentum (last 5)30.9528.06
eye test v1-1.00-0.24
eye trend v1-0.020.33
first sub minute (last 10)53.3057.00
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.201.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.650.76
league points43.0066.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.6083.80
possession avg (last 5)34.0050.20
rest days11.9212.92
scorer concentration0.190.15
season ppg1.131.74
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.209.20
skill v1-2.080.62
solidity v10.55-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.00
squad age25.2929.53
state index0.190.82
sterile dominance v1-1.330.73
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.17
threat rate (last 5)0.250.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.111.40
xg for avg (last 5)0.700.87