← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 73% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.65 |
| Millwall win | 9% | 12.33 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Leeds −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.78 |
| Under | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 25' | 🟨 | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 29' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 33' | ⚽ | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 60' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 79' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilia Gruev · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 260.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1809.94 | 1558.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.81 | 17.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.80 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| league points | 79.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 33.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | -2.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 25.29 |
| state index | 1.43 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.74 |