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West Brom 2–0 Bristol City

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win53%1.85
Draw29%3.44
Bristol City win19%5.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bristol City −0.7554%1.79
West Brom −0.7546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Conor Townsend · West Brom
45'🟨Jason Knight · Bristol City
45'⚽Tom Fellows · West Brom
50'⚽Jed Wallace · West Brom
59'🟨Taylor Gardner-Hickman · Bristol City
71'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · West Brom
85'🟨Cédric Kipré · West Brom
90'🟨Alex Palmer · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots10
4On target5
3Corners7
6Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromBristol City
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.76
cards avg (last 5)0.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Hawthorns
coach days532.00136.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.280.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.352.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.48
elo1701.721582.42
elo momentum (last 5)37.38-32.21
eye test v10.08-0.63
eye trend v10.19-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)56.0057.20
form points (last 5)11.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.730.71
league points63.0047.00
league rank5.0013.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)50.6043.80
rest days6.136.10
scorer concentration0.150.14
season ppg1.701.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2011.20
skill v10.63-0.32
solidity v10.380.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age29.2927.76
state index1.01-0.30
sterile dominance v10.62-0.48
threat rate (last 10)0.200.26
threat rate (last 3)0.140.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.271.21
xg for avg (last 5)1.100.78