← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 42% | 2.35 |
| Watford win | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Birmingham −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Dennis · Watford |
| 68' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Bachmann · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1507.49 | 1569.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.41 | -24.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 45.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 39.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -1.17 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 25.66 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 135.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.97 |