← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 47% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.38 |
| Cardiff win | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Swansea −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 17' | 🟨 | Yakou Méïté · Cardiff |
| 21' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Swansea |
| 34' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jamal Lowe · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 75.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1593.72 | 1573.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.53 | 43.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 43.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.49 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 54.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.91 |