← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 42% | 2.32 |
| Swansea win | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.36 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bristol City −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 73' | ⚽ | Robert Dickie · Bristol City |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 130.00 | 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1573.29 | 1602.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.03 | 0.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 44.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 4.69 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 27.24 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.31 |