← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 39% | 33% | 2.50 | fair |
| Watford win | 34% | 40% | 2.89 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Watford +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Liam Kelly · Coventry |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kasey Palmer · Coventry |
| 26' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Watford |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jake Bidwell · Coventry |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bobby Thomas · Coventry |
| 72' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 88' | 🟨 | Haji Wright · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 8.00 | 2565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1578.29 | 1676.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.41 | -21.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 25.85 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 116.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.73 |