← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 71% | 54% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 22% | 5.67 | value: +27% |
| Sunderland win | 11% | 24% | 9.24 | value: +118% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sunderland −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Jenson Seelt · Sunderland |
| 9' | ⚽ | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Romaine Mundle · Sunderland |
| 64' | 🟨 | Leo Fuhr Hjelde · Sunderland |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland |
| 77' | ⚽ | Joe Rothwell · Southampton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Joe Rothwell · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Rothwell · Southampton |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Joe Aribo · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 252.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1728.14 | 1600.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.72 | -49.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| league points | 70.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 22.01 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.62 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 445.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.84 |