← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Wed, Mar 6, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Swansea win | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Andrews · Swansea |
| 32' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nathan Wood · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 5.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1579.37 | 1601.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.94 | 11.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.10 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 28.55 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 243.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.09 |