← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.03 | fair |
| Bristol City win | 17% | 17% | 5.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Bristol City −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · Ipswich |
| 77' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Bristol City |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Bristol City |
| 80' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 85' | 🟨 | Max O'Leary · Bristol City |
| 89' | ⚽ | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ali Al-Hamadi · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 825.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1770.51 | 1577.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.85 | -4.83 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 75.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.71 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 26.42 |
| state index | 1.22 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.92 |