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Coventry 5–0 Rotherham

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Mar 5, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win72%1.36
Draw18%5.55
Rotherham win11%9.71

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rotherham −1.552%1.88
Coventry −1.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.67
Under42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Ellis Simms · Coventry
23'⚽Joel Latibeaudiere · Coventry
27'⚽Ellis Simms · Coventry
37'⚽Ellis Simms · Coventry
54'🟨Jordan Hugill · Rotherham
90'⚽Fábio Tavares · Coventry

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
16Shots7
6On target1
4Corners5
10Fouls19
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryRotherham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.670.66
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Coventry Building Society Arena
coach days2561.0095.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.807.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.15
dominance (last 5)0.570.47
elo1670.681437.58
elo momentum (last 5)-22.37-33.47
eye test v10.28-0.40
eye trend v1-0.520.24
first sub minute (last 10)51.9058.70
form points (last 5)7.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.630.70
league points51.0019.00
league rank9.0024.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.0011.00
matches since win2.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4071.40
possession avg (last 5)55.0044.20
rest days3.993.20
scorer concentration0.210.14
season ppg1.460.54
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.6012.80
skill v10.71-0.89
solidity v10.84-0.87
sot against avg (last 5)2.806.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age—29.94
state index0.07-1.27
sterile dominance v10.42-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.34
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.871.46
xg for avg (last 5)1.700.94