← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 37% | 2.64 |
| Watford win | 33% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.23 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Watford +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 3' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 45' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 30.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1539.51 | 1589.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.05 | -35.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 47.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 36.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 28.45 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.01 |