← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 54% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.32 | fair |
| Birmingham win | 22% | 21% | 4.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Birmingham +0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.53 |
| Under | 37% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Koji Miyoshi · Birmingham |
| 18' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Koji Miyoshi · Birmingham |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 55' | ⚽ | David Brooks · Southampton |
| 59' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 62' | 🟥 | Dion Sanderson · Birmingham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Will Smallbone · Southampton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Juninho Bacuna · Birmingham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ivan Šunjić · Birmingham |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 16 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| Ethan Laird · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joe Aribo · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1525.03 | 1721.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.96 | -30.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| league points | 38.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 2.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 26.22 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | 1.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.52 |