← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 45% | 51% | 2.20 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Swansea win | 28% | 25% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ronald · Swansea |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ronald · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamie Paterson · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 77' | ⚽ | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 23.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1627.72 | 1581.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.56 | -25.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 47.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 22.54 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 401.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.42 |