← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 68% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 |
| Millwall win | 12% | 8.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Southampton −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Japhet Tanganga · Millwall |
| 8' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 13' | 🟨 | Japhet Tanganga · Millwall |
| 34' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Southampton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 84' | 🟨 | Samuel Edozie · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matija Šarkić · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 238.00 | 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1738.49 | 1522.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.59 | -44.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 67.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.18 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 25.29 |
| state index | 0.61 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.67 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.80 |