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Ipswich 3–1 Birmingham

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich win63%1.50
Draw21%4.81
Birmingham win15%6.45

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich −154%1.79
Birmingham −146%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Conor Chaplin · Ipswich
43'🟨Cameron Burgess · Ipswich
45'⚽Jordan James · Birmingham
50'🟨Massimo Luongo · Ipswich
54'🟨Sam Morsy · Ipswich
75'🟨Ivan Šunjić · Birmingham
81'⚽Jeremy Sarmiento · Ipswich
90'⚽Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
26Shots11
9On target4
7Corners5
11Fouls14
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIpswichBirmingham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.830.57
cards avg (last 5)1.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePortman Road
coach days815.0054.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.872.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.08
dominance (last 5)0.570.56
elo1754.781529.90
elo momentum (last 5)4.9917.25
eye test v11.190.20
eye trend v10.11-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)57.7057.30
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.640.67
league points69.0038.00
league rank3.0016.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)57.0045.60
rest days3.807.00
scorer concentration0.190.25
season ppg2.091.19
shot diff avg (last 5)4.603.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.0016.20
skill v10.71-0.51
solidity v10.500.60
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.604.80
squad age27.0826.69
state index0.700.12
sterile dominance v10.19-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.31
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
travel km—210.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.971.11
xg for avg (last 5)1.981.23