← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 35% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 35% | 38% | 2.85 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cardiff +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Kion Etete · Cardiff |
| 32' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · Cardiff |
| 40' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jun-Ho Bae · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Stoke |
| 51' | 🟨 | Manolis Siopis · Cardiff |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger · Stoke |
| 76' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dimitris Goutas · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 268.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1528.84 | 1528.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.81 | -30.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 26.00 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 182.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.85 |