← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 76% | 72% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.26 | value: +7% |
| Rotherham win | 8% | 11% | 12.88 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham −1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Ipswich −1.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Rotherham |
| 8' | 🟨 | Hakeem Odofin · Rotherham |
| 9' | ⚽ | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 14' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Ipswich |
| 29' | ⚽ | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 60' | ⚽ | Hakeem Odofin · Rotherham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lee Peltier · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Axel Tuanzebe · Ipswich |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Cafú · Rotherham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 811.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1752.52 | 1455.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.51 | -21.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 66.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -1.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.68 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 0.59 |