← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 55% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.81 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 19% | 23% | 5.25 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Norwich −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Jamilu Collins · Cardiff |
| 39' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 47' | 🟨 | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 54' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Cardiff |
| 77' | ⚽ | Christian Fassnacht · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitris Goutas · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 412.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1637.68 | 1540.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.96 | -35.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| league points | 48.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 333.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.65 |