← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 62% | 69% | 1.54 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 16% | 13% | 5.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Middlesbrough −1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.66 |
| Under | 41% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Middlesbrough |
| 24' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Middlesbrough |
| 37' | ⚽ | Samuel Silvera · Middlesbrough |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tom Glover · Middlesbrough |
| 60' | 🟨 | Wout Faes · Leicester |
| 73' | 🟨 | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 231.00 | 504.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 4.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1843.70 | 1622.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.19 | -14.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 78.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.36 | 25.49 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 217.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.46 |