← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 36% | 28% | 2.73 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 36% | 45% | 2.77 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.34 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sunderland +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 32' | 🟨 | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Birmingham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ethan Laird · Birmingham |
| 72' | 🟨 | Krystian Bielik · Birmingham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Abdoullah Ba · Sunderland |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jordan James · Birmingham |
| 80' | ⚽ | Koji Miyoshi · Birmingham |
| 82' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | St Andrew's Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Trai Hume · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 47.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1518.16 | 1639.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.92 | -0.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 1.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 272.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.96 |