← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 70% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.64 |
| Plymouth win | 12% | 8.16 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Leeds +1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.46 |
| Under | 34% | 2.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adam Randell · Plymouth |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lewis Gibson · Plymouth |
| 72' | ⚽ | Georginio Rutter · Leeds |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joe Rodon · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 47.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1608.69 | 1779.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.94 | 33.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 37.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | 1.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.88 |
| state index | 0.20 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 0.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.92 |