← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Wed, Feb 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 47% | 44% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Millwall win | 25% | 30% | 4.04 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Ipswich +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Wes Harding · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Ipswich |
| 58' | 🟨 | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 60' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 84' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ali Al-Hamadi · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 13.00 | 805.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1553.41 | 1732.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.36 | -10.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 33.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 3.33 | 4.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 27.79 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.75 |