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Millwall 0–4 Ipswich

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Wed, Feb 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich win47%2.01
Draw28%3.60
Millwall win25%4.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Millwall +0.551%1.90
Ipswich +0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich
32'⚽ (og)Wes Harding · Ipswich
45'⚽Kieffer Moore · Ipswich
58'🟨Leif Davis · Ipswich
60'🟨Danny McNamara · Millwall
84'🟨George Saville · Millwall
88'🟨Ryan Leonard · Millwall
90'⚽ (pen)Ali Al-Hamadi · Ipswich

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
14Shots8
4On target4
9Corners5
12Fouls13
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMillwallIpswich
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.740.68
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Den
coach days13.00805.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.253.24
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.17
dominance (last 5)0.390.64
elo1553.411732.66
elo momentum (last 5)-47.36-10.92
eye test v1-0.590.60
eye trend v10.120.34
first sub minute (last 10)61.6058.80
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.690.63
league points33.0060.00
league rank21.004.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0081.80
possession avg (last 5)49.0057.60
rest days3.334.31
scorer concentration0.190.18
season ppg1.062.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.807.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.4017.40
skill v1-0.070.92
solidity v1-0.340.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.20
squad age25.2927.27
state index-0.730.38
sterile dominance v10.420.17
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.32
threat rate (last 5)0.190.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.500.67
xg for avg (last 5)0.881.75