← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 46% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Watford win | 28% | 32% | 3.56 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Watford −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Norwich |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Norwich |
| 28' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 30' | 🟨 | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mileta Rajović · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matheus Martins · Watford |
| 71' | ⚽ | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Christian Fassnacht · Norwich |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| Liam Gibbs · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 408.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1626.09 | 1605.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.32 | -11.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 45.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.53 | 27.59 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 159.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.11 |