← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 48% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +9% |
| Watford win | 27% | 21% | 3.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Leicester +0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Patson Daka · Leicester |
| 37' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benjamin Nelson · Leicester |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 63' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Dennis · Watford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 285.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1611.31 | 1834.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.90 | -4.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 26.12 |
| state index | -0.11 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 119.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.98 |