← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 76% | 70% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.19 | value: +13% |
| Huddersfield win | 8% | 12% | 13.16 | value: +60% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Southampton −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.51 |
| Under | 37% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Huddersfield |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 36' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Huddersfield |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jack Rudoni · Huddersfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | David Kasumu · Huddersfield |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 49' | ⚽ | Joe Rothwell · Southampton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Joe Rothwell · Southampton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Alex Matos · Huddersfield |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ben Jackson · Huddersfield |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Tom Lees · Southampton |
| 84' | ⚽ | Sékou Mara · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samuel Edozie · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 224.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.21 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1752.20 | 1558.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.84 | 13.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.86 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.56 |
| league points | 61.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.46 | -0.58 |
| solidity v1 | 1.31 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.48 |
| state index | 1.56 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.38 | 1.17 |