← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 49% | 49% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
| West Brom win | 24% | 26% | 4.04 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Ipswich −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Tom Fellows · West Brom |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 46' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 49' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 56' | 🟨 | Andreas Weimann · West Brom |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Chalobah · West Brom |
| 76' | ⚽ | John Swift · West Brom |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 801.00 | 497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1736.18 | 1668.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.76 | -1.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 59.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 27.93 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 217.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.72 |