← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 45% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.36 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 27% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sunderland −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lukas Engel · Middlesbrough |
| 34' | 🟨 | Abdoullah Ba · Sunderland |
| 61' | ⚽ | Marcus Forss · Middlesbrough |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sam Greenwood · Middlesbrough |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nazariy Rusyn · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre Ekwah · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 491.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.21 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1647.93 | 1636.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.67 | -2.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 14.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 22.41 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 38.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.72 |