← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 57% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Birmingham win | 19% | 17% | 5.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.89 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Lee Buchanan · Birmingham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Cédric Kipré · West Brom |
| 55' | 🟨 | Krystian Bielik · Birmingham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · Birmingham |
| 78' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 85' | ⚽ | Andreas Weimann · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 490.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1663.26 | 1525.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.89 | -7.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 45.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -1.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.88 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 7.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 0.90 |