⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Blackburn 1–2 QPR

← EFL Championship 2023-24 Β· Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G. Eltringham

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn win50%1.91
Draw26%3.87
QPR win24%4.04

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn βˆ’0.551%1.91
QPR βˆ’0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Sondre Tronstad · Blackburn
41'🟨Sinclair Armstrong · QPR
54'🟨Elijah Dixon-Bonner · QPR
61'⚽ (og)Aynsley Pears · QPR
64'⚽Joe Hodge · QPR
73'⚽Sam Gallagher · Blackburn
90'🟨Yasin Ayari · Blackburn
90'🟨Asmir BegoviΔ‡ Β· QPR

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots7
6On target4
4Corners10
12Fouls5
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackburnQPR
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.65
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEwood Park
coach days2.00125.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.342.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.58
elo1548.591490.18
elo momentum (last 5)-39.646.98
eye test v10.03-0.27
eye trend v10.180.28
first sub minute (last 10)48.4054.70
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.620.77
league points33.0025.00
league rank18.0022.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet11.001.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)63.4053.00
rest days14.006.06
scorer concentration0.380.18
season ppg1.180.86
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2010.60
skill v11.550.16
solidity v1-1.301.08
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
squad age25.0728.83
state index-0.77-0.04
sterile dominance v11.310.49
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.20
travel kmβ€”290.10
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.750.71
xg for avg (last 5)1.320.87