← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 47% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
| Stoke win | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Sunderland −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 32' | 🟨 | Luke Cundle · Stoke |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Stoke |
| 43' | ⚽ | Mason Burstow · Sunderland |
| 49' | ⚽ | Abdoullah Ba · Sunderland |
| 70' | ⚽ | Pierre Ekwah · Sunderland |
| 74' | ⚽ (og) | Jenson Seelt · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1627.16 | 1559.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.89 | 20.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| league points | 40.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.66 | 26.23 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 220.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.01 |