← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 14, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Watford win | 35% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Watford +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · QPR |
| 20' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · QPR |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jack Colback · QPR |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Watford |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tom Dele-Bashiru · Watford |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Lyndon Dykes · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | MATRADE Loftus Road |
| coach days | 105.00 | 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1481.01 | 1617.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.12 | 5.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 12.88 | 12.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.83 | 26.97 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 19.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.80 |