← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 52% | 50% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Blackburn −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.77 |
| Under | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Tom Fellows · West Brom |
| 30' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · West Brom |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Dominic Hyam · West Brom |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · West Brom |
| 43' | 🟨 | Cédric Kipré · West Brom |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jake Garrett · Blackburn |
| 63' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 469.00 | 591.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1669.18 | 1560.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.28 | -50.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 1.13 | -2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 24.27 |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 140.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.21 |