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Rotherham 0–1 Stoke

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stoke win48%2.00
Draw27%3.57
Rotherham win24%4.01

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rotherham +0.551%1.90
Stoke +0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.84
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Lewis Baker · Stoke
78'🟨Wouter Burger · Stoke
86'🟨Tom Eaves · Rotherham
89'🟨Cafú · Rotherham
90'🟨Jordan Thompson · Stoke
90'🟨Ben Pearson · Stoke

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
3Shots4
0On target3
3Corners6
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRotherhamStoke
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.640.67
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAESSEAL New York Stadium
coach days43.0043.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)9.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.04
dominance (last 5)0.290.52
elo1485.911563.63
elo momentum (last 5)12.4628.45
eye test v1-0.85-0.56
eye trend v10.110.42
first sub minute (last 10)61.5063.00
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
keeper form v10.72—
league points18.0029.00
league rank24.0018.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6076.00
possession avg (last 5)30.8045.40
rest days12.0012.00
scorer concentration0.130.22
season ppg0.691.12
shot diff avg (last 5)-11.200.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.0012.20
skill v1-1.74-0.40
solidity v1-1.820.58
sot against avg (last 5)7.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
squad age29.9427.81
state index-0.480.26
sterile dominance v1-1.22-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)2.091.04
xg for avg (last 5)0.930.75