← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
| Rotherham win | 24% | 4.01 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Stoke +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 78' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger · Stoke |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tom Eaves · Rotherham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cafú · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 4 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1485.91 | 1563.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.46 | 28.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -1.82 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.94 | 27.81 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.75 |