← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 41% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
| Millwall win | 31% | 36% | 3.18 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 38' | ⚽ | Lukas Engel · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ryan Longman · Millwall |
| 58' | ⚽ | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lukas Engel · Middlesbrough |
| 80' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcus Forss · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 12.00 | 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1600.78 | 1637.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.08 | -1.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 1.56 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 24.42 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.50 |